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2020.07.18 16:33 18Jlulenergetic Tiny Wom-an Big Di-ck Por-n

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2020.03.10 11:45 Fwoggie2 Covid-19 update Tuesday March 10th

Good morning from the UK.

Virus statistics

Region Today Yesterday % Change
Global 113,672 101,923 +11.5%
China 80,924 80,565 +0.4%
Italy 9,172 7,375 +24.4%
South Korea 7,513 7,382 +1.8%
Iran 7,161 6,566 +9.1%
France 1,412 1,116 +26.5%
Germany 1,139 902 +26.3%
USA 755 547 +38.0%
Spain 1,024 589 +73.9%
Japan 514 488 +5.3%
Switzerland 332 332 No change
UK 323 277 +16.6%
Netherlands 321 265 +21.1%

Countries with under 250 identified infections not listed. Total countries infected worldwide = 110, an increase from yesterday of 6. Source: The WHO dashboard (Link), except for USA where I'm using the John Hopkins University dashboard (Link). Given Italy had 647 cases only 11 days ago and now has over 1,000% that number ( source), it's reasonable to expect quarantines to one degree or another to come into place in a week or two for any country currently over 250.
Reminder, these are identified case counts and medical experts are reporting this virus has a long incubation period with people being infections despite displaying no symptoms; the true infection figures are likely to be much higher.

Virus reaction

Italy quarantines itself - As many will already know, the Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte ordered the shutdown of the whole of Italy (Guardian: Link) late yesterday (Monday). “There is no more time. I will take responsibility for these measures. Our future is in our hands,” he told reporters. In Italy under the decree, all public events will be banned, cinemas, theatres, gyms, discos and pubs closed, and funerals, weddings and sporting events cancelled – including Serie A matches (the highest football/soccer league in the country). All schools and universities will remain closed until 3 April. Under the new decree, people will only be able to travel between cities for emergency reasons and can face fines and up to three months in jail for breaking quarantine rules. Checkpoints on motorways, toll booths, train stations and airports are expected to be introduced on Tuesday. Those who have to leave their region or their cities out of serious necessity can do so only if they have self-certification stating that they must cross the borders for compelling business reasons, health reasons, or because they have to return home. The Guardian points out in its live blog (Link) that the quarantine measures do appear to be working; infection rates are dropping in the eleven towns that were already quarantined more than two weeks ago. (Personal note: I checked FedEx, DHL and UPS service alerts for Italy; FedEx and DHL still aren't delivering to the 11 quarantined towns but say nothing for the rest of Italy, UPS says it's operating in Italy as normal).

Social media thoughts on Italy's battle with the virus - two threads have gone viral in the past 24 hours (neither can be corroborated but they seem reasonably believable to me). The first from an epidemiologist repeats the thoughts of a doctor working in a badly affected Italian hospital - the ER is becoming overwhelmed, everyone is being admitted for the same reason, all beds are full and staff are badly fatigued. You can read it here, she provided a follow up link at the bottom. The other is reporting on what his friend in Italy's medical system says and it's much the same thing - there is not enough equipment to meet the surge in demand, staff are becoming overwhelmed and those over 65 are not even being assessed and nobody is available to help them if they arrest (that link is here) - I assume they mean they are being forced to let the patient die because they are overwhelmed with other patients who are better placed to survive.

Is this a pandemic or not - Vox has written an interesting article on why the WHO still hasn't called it a Pandemic despite senior politicians in several countries doing just that. The reason - it's political (link).

Family of Missouri's first coronavirus patient broke self-quarantine, attended school dance - Fox News reports that the father of the first patient disobeyed self-quarantine rules and went to a school dance with his other daughter. Villa Duchesne and Oak Hill School will close on Monday; Villa is an all-girls school that serves grades seven through 12, while Oak Hill is a coed school that teaches preschool through grade six.

UAE bans all cruise ship visits until further notice - Splash247 reports that the Federal Transport Authority of the United Arab Emirates has decided to suspend all cruise operations at the country’s ports as part of precautionary measures to prevent the spreading of coronavirus. Ferry services to Iran were already suspended last month.

Other virus reactions in brief - Sources Guardian live blog (linked above) and Al-Jazeera live blog (link)
- The president of the European parliament announced he will self isolate for the next two weeks and work from home after visiting Italy over last weekend
- Poland has cancelled all mass public gatherings
- Pope Francis has urged priests to have the courage to go out and visit the sick and elderly
- Greek MPs are warning the health system on the island of Lesbos (which is host to 27,000 migrants and refugees is becoming overwhelmed and needs urgent help)
- Moldova is banning entrants via air from any country recording infections. Separately, Morocco has cancelled all flights to Italy as has the major European airline Norwegian airlines. Australian airline Qantas has grounded eight of its 10 A380 planes and is rerouting flights as it grapples with a sharp drop in demand; it's suspending 25% of its flights worldwide.
- The French culture minister has contracted the virus and is self isolating
- The UK's deputy chief medial officer has being doing the media tour this morning; she told Sky News that many thousands will become infected in the UK with mortality rates initially rising before falling again
- The Grand Princess cruise ship has finally docked in San Francisco with 21 cases onboard. Canada and the UK have said they will fly their citizens home; US citizens will be taken to military bases for 2 weeks quarantine.
- For the 3rd day in a row no local transmissions of the virus have been recorded in China outside of Hubei province
- China's President Xi has visited Wuhan for the first time since the outbreak started in a move widely seen as authorities feeling that the tide is turning in the fight against the virus.
- In Singapore non residents will now have to pay for healthcare if they are admitted to hospital with the Coronavirus (previously it was free). The government added that testing of foreign visitors will remain free.
- The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome and Mastercard pledged $125m to support the development of treatments for the coronavirus.
- Mongolia has quarantined all of its major cities after it discovered its first case.
- US forces in South Korea and Japan have been confined to their bases (source:, link)


What are people panic buying - reports has the answer (link), at least for Canadian consumers. Apart from the obvious sanitisers and masks, other products include cough and herbal remedies, baby products, dried food and deodorant with demand for oat milk nearly having tripled.

Virus Makes Lobsters So Cheap That Sellers Face a Fatal Blow - Supplychainbrain reports (link) that U.S. lobster prices have plummeted to the lowest in at least four years after the spread of the virus halted charter flights to Asia at a time when sales usually boom for Chinese New Year celebrations. The fallout has left thousands of pounds of unsold lobster flooding North American markets and squeezing U.S. businesses that were already hurting from lost sales due to China’s tariffs from its trade war with Washington. “This is like a fatal blow,” said Stephanie Nadeau, owner of Arundel, Maine-based The Lobster Co., which saw orders to Hong Kong shrivel from about 1,000 boxes a week to a total of 120 boxes -- each carrying 33 pounds -- since late January. “I’m about to lay off most of my employees.” The article goes on to discuss similar impacts hitting Canada, Australia and New Zealand lobster fisheries.

Supply chain

COVID-19 swallows $400 million revenue of African airlines - says (link) the major African airlines have to date suffered $400m USD of revenue losses due to a collapse in demand. Several African airlines such as South African Airways, Royal Air Maroc, Air Tanzania, Air Mauritius, EgyptAir, RwandAir and Kenya Airways have suspended flights to and from China. Meanwhile, Ethiopian Airlines is still operating flights to and from five cities in China. Losses are expected to rise further.

Carriers eye empty passenger services to keep intra-Asia air cargo moving - The Loadstar says that Cathay Pacific (the major HK based airline) is thinking of using some passenger aircraft for cargo only flights to keep cargo moving around Asia. “Although we expect our passenger belly cargo operations to be impacted, we are evaluating how to continue serving our cargo customers to and from Japan,” Cathay said. “This includes the retention of certain passenger services for cargo carriage only.” The article goes on to quote a CEO of a large logistics firm: “We suggest customers consider ocean freight, rail freight, sea-air freight and even road freight, such as China-ASEAN cross-border trucks to diversify the risk. It is anticipated that surging demand of rail freight will also drive rate increases. In the meantime, more and more charter flight services will be launched in the market to soften demand”.

U.S. Exempts Face Masks, Medical Products From China Tariffs - reports that the US administration has lifted tariffs on face masks and medical products. One manufacturer is quoted as saying that the global production of the product is significantly limited to China, and changing to U.S. or third-country manufacturers “is not practical or competitive." "Additional duties on such products would cause major financial harm and increase costs to healthcare providers and their customers in the United States,” the company added.

iPhone 11 shortages in the US - the German tech website is reporting (link, in German) that in parts of the USA stocks of iPhone 11 models have run out and there is no sign of a resupply. It notes that the manufacturer FoxConn is struggling with its factories at an estimated 50% operational capacity. For the time being, availability in Germany remains good.

Israel: Courtesy of the Coronavirus, That Order From Amazon Could Take a Month to Reach Your Front Door - the major newspaper Haaretz has warned that if flights inbound from the US stop, it may take up to a month for Amazon orders to arrive - already AliExpress orders have plummeted in Israel as suppliers have struggled to ship out of Israel. Some e-commerce firms are countering by using connecting flights if direct ones have been cancelled. “In the worst case, and we’re closed to the U.S., they’ll be a real pogrom for the delivery sector. It means that deliveries won’t go out at all and there will be real shortages of merchandise,” one courier manager said. “The logistics universe comprises of lots of intermediate stops, The expectation now is that every link will be affected. If people are in lockdown, it means warehouse workers, delivery people and customs inspectors – everyone who comes into contact with the package, and that’s scores of hands until it reaches the customer.” He said he expected that to happen in weeks, maybe days, as the coronavirus, spreads to countries that are relevant to the supply chain that serve Israel such as Britain, Germany and the U.S.

Major UK supermarket chains now rationing sales for some products due to heavy demand - the BBC reports that Tesco and some other supermarket chains are now rationing sales of certain products both online and in store including antibacterial gels, wipes and sprays, dry pasta, UHT milk and some tinned vegetables. According to a survey from Retail Economics, as many as one in 10 UK consumers is stockpiling, based on a sample of 2,000 shoppers.

Good news section

Major UK automotive company Jaguar Land Rover says its supply chain is holding up - having hit the headlines a few weeks ago for flying in suitcases of key fobs, reports that the automotive firm is saying its supply chain is holding up with most of its suppliers back online. JLR said it has visibility of availability of most parts out two weeks or more and had managed to avoid potential parts shortages by working closely with its suppliers and with some increased use of air freight. In the event of specific parts shortages, it warned, JLR would ordinarily be able to still build cars and retrofit missing parts when available, however, it said it could not rule out the risk that a shortage of a critical component could impact production at some point.
EDIT: Table formatting
EDIT 2: Lesbos isn't in Italy
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2019.10.25 03:12 fullbloodedwhitemale Is the death of Europe?

The proliferation of other races dooms our race, my race, irretrievably to extinction in the century to come, if we hold fast to our present moral principles. — Jean Raspail, The Camp of the Saints, 1973
Forty-two years ago, the great French author Jean Raspail wrote a deeply prescient novel. A flotilla of rusty ships packed with beggars sets sail from the Third World. They head for the French Riviera, where a million wretched, brown-skinned people hope to storm the beaches and feed on the wealthy white West. Will the French army fire on the invaders or welcome them as refugees? In the end they do neither; soldiers throw down their weapons and run away as the mob stumbles ashore. Millions more follow, and Europe is snuffed out.
The Camp of the Saints has never gone out of print, and has been translated into all major European languages–and yet the coverage of the European “migrant” crisis goes on as if it had never been written. The masses pouring in from Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, and a host of African countries are doing exactly what Mr. Raspail predicted they would and, tragically, so are the Europeans.
The underlying problem–and one that cannot be solved–is that whites have built the most pleasant places to live in human history while, with only a few exceptions, everywhere else is a dung heap. In some cases, such as Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya, Western meddling has made things worse, but even without that, hundreds of millions of non-whites in a hundred different countries would move to Europe or America if they could.
And now, they can.
The Camp of the Saints put the white man’s dilemma in the harshest terms: slaughter hundreds of thousands of men, women, and children or face oblivion. The flotilla sets sail confident that Europeans do not have the nerve to kill in order to survive. Today as well, the Third World is crossing the Mediterranean confident that whites don’t have the nerve even to turn them back. Every vagabond who gets a bed in a reception center in Dortmund or Malmö tweets the good news to a hundred people back in Somalia and Syria. They will come in endless waves until they are stopped, and if they are not stopped Europe will die, just as it does in The Camp of the Saints.
What Europeans are doing reflects something deep in their nature, which makes them capable of extraordinary levels of pathological altruism. But the present invasion also has a legal background that dates to the 1951 United Nations Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees. It defines a refugee as someone:
[who] owing to [a] well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion, is outside the country of his nationality and is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country.
The convention required “non-refoulement,” which means refugees cannot be turned back at the border. It also prohibited countries from applying to refugees the usual punishments for illegal entry. The convention came out of the Second World War, applied only to Europeans, and gave signatories the option of limiting their definition of refugees to people who were displaced “as a result of events occurring before 1 January 1951.”
In 1951, the world population was 2.5 billion. It is now 7.3 billion, and the overwhelming bulk of the growth has been in those very countries that are so miserable that huge numbers of their citizens want to leave.
The United States did not sign the convention. What it did sign, in 1968, was a protocol added to the convention, which removed the original geographic and time limits. This meant signatories were required to take in anyone from anywhere forever. Until 1968, however, the United States had no legal obligation to accept any refugees.
Virtually every member of the United Nations has signed both documents–Nauru signed in 2011–but countries like East Timor, Afghanistan, and Zimbabwe have little fear of being called on to fulfill their obligations.
The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) sets up camps for refugees and does initial screening. Except under crazy circumstances like those in Europe today, countries decide how many refugees they will accept, and dicker with UNHCR over who they will take. The supply is essentially unlimited: Last year, UNHCR said there were more than 50 million displaced people around the world, of whom about 17 million were officially designated as refugees.
Except for the countries right next to the places people are trying to leave, white countries accept by far the most refugees. China completely ignores the “non-refoulement” rule, turning back Burmese tribal people whom the authorities are driving out of the country. In 2014, Japan accepted only 11 out of 5,000 applications for asylum. Mexico, which sends us millions of people, accepts even fewer: It now has a total of 1,677 refugees to Japan’s 2,649. And it’s not as though no one applies to Mexico. Central America has produced plenty of “refugees” but Mexico won’t take them.
Countries just do what they please, because the conventions have no enforcement mechanism. The only price for spurning refugees is accusations of heartlessness, and so long as a country isn’t white, there isn’t much of that.
There has been some clucking about Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the rich Gulf States, which are selective and let Syrians in only on work visas. In fact, they are the most honest players in the game; they haven’t signed the conventions so they don’t have to accept refugees. At the same time, they have spent hundreds of millions of dollars on camps for displaced Syrians in Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan. The United Arab Emirates alone have splashed out more than half a billion to house their fellow Muslims. The UN and Western countries have also spent several billion dollars on those camps, where about 3.7 million displaced Syrians have been living safely–though not luxuriously–for years.
And that is what makes this “refugee crisis” not just a calamity for Europe but an absurdity. News reports routinely talk about Syrians “fleeing war and turmoil in the Middle East,” but it’s not as though the Syrian civil war suddenly turned brutal, and shell-shocked families are fleeing war zones with only the clothes on their backs. Many have decided they are just tired of refugee camps–and the ones in Lebanon have cut back somewhat on handouts. Those coming straight from Syria just want a chance at Europe, too. As one 35-year-old woman who brought two young children with her from Aleppo explained at the Hungarian border, “I decided to leave Syria because I want my kids to have a comfortable life, to study.”
In any case, it’s hardly the poor who are making the trip. Smugglers charge as much as $2,000 per adult to ferry people just a couple of miles from Turkey to a Greek island. It takes money to travel on to Germany or Sweden–though some European countries are laying on free travel, food, and shelter. These newcomers are not the needy; they are the greedy.
Finally, this “refugee crisis” is not just an absurdity; it’s absurdity on stilts. Syrians don’t qualify as refugees under the conventions. As noted above, a refugee has to have a well-founded fear of persecution. Being caught in a war zone is not persecution.
A government can choose to treat Syrians as refugees, however, and most European countries have promised them special handling. People are therefore throwing away their identity papers as soon as they get to Europe and are claiming to be Syrian. There is now a brisk market in fake Syrian passports; German authorities have confiscated hundreds of blanks. A Dutch journalist in Syria paid $850 for a very convincing-looking custom-made fake, and they are now offered on the Internet. Syrians have been getting into fights with imposters who, they think, make it harder for real Syrians to register as refugees.
In any case, it is wrong for the press to call these people “migrants,” as if they were Canada geese. Every one of them, wherever he came from, is an illegal immigrant. Israel calls such people “infiltrators.” It would not be incorrect to call them “invaders,” since they are an army of aliens come to occupy and transform Europe.
Liberals are scratching their heads, trying to figure out what set off the current flood. They note that the Syrian war hasn’t gotten worse, and that conditions in Turkish and Jordanian refugee camps are the same as ever.
The answer is simple: Waves of illegals are coming because they can. They saw hundreds of thousands of Africans from such places as Senegal and Nigeria–without even a fantasy claim to being “refugees”–swarming across the Mediterranean from Libya. Not only did the Italian Navy save their lives when their boats sank, it turned them loose on the continent to go wherever the handouts were most generous. Firm treatment early on–towing the boats back where they came from as the Australians do–would have stopped them right away. Instead, Europe foolishly opened the door and is shocked that more have followed.
Germany, especially, has been letting in anyone who wants to come, and people from wrecked countries all over the world know a good thing when they see it. That is why only about one in five of the people pouring into Europe over the last three months is even Syrian. The rest come from South Sudan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Eritrea, and every other hell hole.
Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany made things much worse by announcing that she expects to take in 800,000 waifs this year. Now the government says it could be more like a million. Chancellor Merkel has even been so stupid as to say that “the right to political asylum has no limits on the number of asylum seekers.” Technically, she’s right–the conventions say nothing about limits–but this is an open invitation to every basket-case country everywhere. Here is an interactive graphic from the New York Times that gives a very dramatic sense of what some of these numbers mean.
Chancellor Merkel’s invitation explains why nearly a million illegals have already come to Europe, and countless more are on the way. It explains why 3,000 arrive every day on the tiny Greek Island of Lesbos. And why nearly 4,700 boat people were rescued off the coast of Libya just last Saturday (Sept. 20). And why the crush of “migrants” has so overwhelmed European transport systems that train service had to be stopped between Budapest and Vienna, and between Munich and Salzberg. It explains the mountains of rubbish, food, and feces the “migrants” have left behind wherever the gather.
It explains why we can look forward to such piquant ironies as 75,000 Muslims showing up in Munich just in time for Oktoberfest. Will they spoil the fun for the 6 million locals and tourists who are expected to swallow 1.7 millions of gallons of beer?
Trying to feed, house, clothe, mediate, and teach German to these illegals won’t be cheap, either. Current estimates are that if Germany takes in one million foreigners a year for two years the bill could run to €25 billion ($28 billion). Germany had been running a budget surplus of a few billion a year; it will go back into the red.
The German Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel, who is Chancellor Merkel’s deputy, has said what may be the most idiotic thing yet: “If we manage to quickly train those that come to us and to get them into work, then we will solve one of our biggest problems for the economic future of our country: the skills shortage.” Germany already has an indigestible mass of Turks who are a recognized scourge, and if Germany needed skilled immigrants it could select them rather than let in masses of whatever shows up.
But Germany is burnishing its credentials as officially post-Nazi. Polls show that a majority of Germans welcome the refugees and can’t get enough international praise. Meanwhile, officials in the German Länder, or states, that have actually have to handle the crowds, worry that they are already stretched to capacity.
The United States, which has so far let in only a couple of thousand Syrians, wants praise, too. Secretary of State John Kerry just announced an increase from 70,000 to 85,000 for next year’s refugee quota, with a goal of 100,000 for 2017. He explained we can’t let in more because it takes time to vet Syrians for terrorism. What does that say about the potential two million Germany could be in for?
The spinelessness of the Europeans is perfectly matched by the arrogance and aggressiveness of the illegals. One might think people who show up without permission in a foreign country would be grateful simply not to be turned back. Not these people. On the Greek islands they fought each other and rioted because they didn’t think they were being treated well enough. On Kos, a tourist mecca, they blocked the main street of the town chanting, “We want papers. We want to eat.” On Lesbos, with 20,000 surly young men camping in streets and squares, locals were afraid to leave their homes or send children to school. “They have stolen our lives,” said one.
Africans in Italian reception centers in Belluno, Sicily, and Rome went on hunger strikes because they were tired of Italian food and wanted African food. The strikers in Belluno slashed the tires of Italians who worked at the center.
At the Serbian/Hungarian frontier, migrants massed at a border fence, chanting “open the door.” They gave the Hungarians two hours to let them in, and then launched human-wave attacks on the fence to try to tear it down. When the Hungarians fired tear gas and water cannons, the illegals threw rocks and sticks at the border police. There was a running battle of several hours before the illegals finally gave up and headed for Croatia.
Rail service from Germany to Austria through the Freilassing border crossing had to be suspended when illegals hit the emergency break to slow down the train so they could jump off. They then walked around the border crossing so they wouldn’t have to show papers. On all the rail routes leading to Germany, thousands of illegals have been sleeping in stations, filling the restrooms and platforms with filth, and cramming themselves onto any train that was passing through, whether they had tickets or not. Mobs at the Keleti railroad station in central Budapest shouted “Fuck you,” and “Allahu Akbar” at Hungarian authorities.
Most of these illegals are young Muslim men who have never seen a woman in a bikini. There have already been reports of women and children being raped in some of the migrant centers, where Muslims consider unaccompanied women “fair game.” Even when they have segregated dormitories, women sleep fully dressed, and are afraid to walk around the centers. So many have been forced into prostitution that a social worker at a Bavarian shelter called it “the biggest brothel in Munich.” It’s no accident that in immigrant-happy Sweden the majority of rapists are immigrants–overwhelmingly Muslim. These are the people Chancellor Merkel’s deputy thinks will make good Germans.
This is what Europe gets for its spinelessness. The illegals sense weakness, and they are right. They exploit that weakness, and their success inspires yet more hundreds of thousands–no doubt millions–from every wretched country. Only force will stop them, the force that any healthy people would have used immediately.
Fortunately, not all of Europe has gone insane. Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto pointed out that if Germany is worried about the plight of Syrians it could use a tiny fraction of the money it has budgeted for “migrants” to improve conditions in the camps in Jordan, Turkey, and Lebanon.
Hungary’s Prime Minister, Victor Orban has been the most consistently clear-headed European head of state throughout the crisis. He has warned that Muslims will destroy Europe’s Christian identity and that Europeans have a right to refuse to become minorities on their own continent. His determination to keep illegals out has made him a hero to his people.
Slovakia said it would let in 200 Syrians but they had to be Christians. Interior Minister Ivan Netik explained that Slovakia doesn’t have a single mosque and that Muslims aren’t welcome.
Dutch political leader Geert Wilders has warned of an “Islamic invasion:”
Masses of young men in their twenties with beards singing ‘Allahu Akbar’ (God is greatest) across Europe–it’s an invasion that threatens our prosperity, our security, our culture and identity.
He’s right. Sheikh Muhammad Ayed, speaking at the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, encouraged the illegals to pour into Europe and mate with Europeans. “We will breed children with them, because we shall conquer their countries,” he said. “We will trample them underfoot, Allah willing.”
Ironically, it is former Communists, who lived under an overtly anti-religious, anti-nationalist ideology, that are still able to think in terms of national and religious identity. When Chancellor Merkel said she wanted to assign mandatory “refugee” quotas to every EU member, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic refused. Communism protected them from something much worse: “tolerance” and “diversity.”
Perhaps the greatest irony, however, is that emasculated West Europeans are accusing East Europeans of not being European. French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said that Hungary’s efforts to keep out illegals shows it does not “respect Europe’s common values.” It is only because Europeans fought Muslim invaders for 1,000 years–from 732 at the Battle of Poitiers to 1683 at the gates of Vienna–that Europe as we know it even exists. Incredibly, Mr. Fabius wants to throw it all away in the name of what he calls “Europe’s common values.”
Laurent Fabius could have stepped right out of the pages of The Camp of the Saints.
As Jean Raspail wrote in 1985:
[T]he West is empty, even if it has not yet become really aware of it. An extraordinarily inventive civilization, surely the only one capable of meeting the challenges of the third millennium, the West has no soul left.
submitted by fullbloodedwhitemale to conspiracy [link] [comments]

2012.11.04 23:24 tabledresser [Table] IAmA Professional Genealogist AMA!

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Date: 2012-10-26
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Questions Answers
Do you believe your work contributed to grassroots of racism? Ie genealogical differences leading to fueds between ethnic groups. You know that's genuinely the first time I've heard that! I'd argue the contrary. I've managed to help people trace their cultural and ethnic heritage to places they had no idea they originated from. Anyone who discovers they are linked to another place through blood would naturally be curious and start to learn more about that culture and history.
When you realise just how intermixed we are it's very hard to still see yourself as an isolated ethnic group.
So what's up with the whole 3 wishes thing? I'm not sure what you are referring to, can you clarify a little for me?
He's asking a question about Genies, you know? Infinite cosmic power! Itty bitty living space you would know about that being a Genealogist and all. I can't believe I missed that! Never ask for more wishes. Three is a nice round number, any more and you'd never fit it into a heartwarming 120 minute animated feature.
I once read that if you have traces of red in your hair (or red hair) - that this could be a trace for having celtic ancestors..any genetic studies done on this? There have been actually - It's quite an interesting subject when you start throwing in DNA to find out more about your own history. Red hair is a mutation that arose 20-40,000 years ago and although its not a "Celtic" gene it's almost exclusively European and prevalence is overwhelmingly highest in the Celtic nations.
Worth noting though is that there are significant minorities of redhaired people from the Basque Country in Spain, the Netherlands and Scandinavia. If you've got the Red headed gene then I'd say you've got a fair chance of having genetic origins in any one of these places.
I am blond, just my beard tends to get reddish. Ancestors are dutch and polish but our family trees dont go back TOO far, so i was interested what was before,, i.e. if it is a deep rooted dutch/polish tree or if the roots lie in reality somewhere else. If you've got Dutch ancestors I'd say it's entirely possible the red hair came from there - but you know how easy it is for migration over hundreds of years, so I wouldn't want to say its a 100%. The Dutch were quite the seafaring nation!
My question is, how do you think the future of Genealogy (say, in fifty years time) will differ from today? And then again another fifty years after that? Will it just be a case of Facebook becoming a museum to track your ancestors and monopolising the industry, or do you think companies like yourselves will be able to compete? Great question! Without a doubt it's going to be easier. fifty years ago if you wanted to learn about your ancestors you had to visit the places they lived and rummage through town hall and church records, archives and libraries handling or viewing on microfiche thousands of documents in the hope you find something of note. With the rise of digitisation, you can sit at home wherever you live and automatically search through billions (without exaggeration) of records at the touch of a button and sift through only those matching locations and details that you require. The pace of this digitisation (one of the best way to preserve these delicate records for all time) is speeding up on a daily basis - huge projects are being entered into by volunteer transcribers/scanners or commercial companies that mean it just gets easier and easier to find things you would never know existed. A personal example would be that I found a full physical description of my greatx4 grandfather in a merchant navy record (5 foot 5, 32 inch chest, 28 inch waist, grey eyes, blonde hair and "slightly pockmarked") that a few years ago I'd never know existed (I just had his occupation as "ships captain" in a census). I found a woman's greatx3 uncle in a newspaper archive that we've just digitised, he disappeared with no explanation and it turns out he was kidnapped by a German secret society for breaking their rules (quite a scandal at the time that again we just wouldn't have even imagined without such rich contextual content automatically suggested to help us). I dread facebook being used as a museum...I don't know if I ever want my great grandchildren viewing my "look at this dog wearing clothes" statuses. It's possible that you could use facebook to go back a little way, but I think without getting into the world of pre-internet official documents you'll never be able to really fill in the story. I'm pragmatic - There are several large companies operating in this space, we have records nobody else has, our rivals have the same, you can get access to a fair few for free from some specialist sites (I'm here because I love Genealogy, not to give you a hard sell) - but no matter who has YOUR personal records, you can't beat that emotional response of finding something connecting you with someone you know is a part of you personally.
Say that if my family tree is well documented, going as far back as the 1600's, could you take that from there and find out the region of France they're originally from? They were persecuted as Huguenots and fled to England, and how much would that cost me? I'd applaud you first of all for being able to get that far! I'd say that it's possible to go further, particularly as some of the records in French archives are VERY well preserved (Montauban would be your best bet as it was the nexus of the Huguenot movement) but you'd want to employ someone who could both speak fluent French to understand the records fully and could physically visit the archives to go through them and photograph them for you (very few are digitised). I've come across a few organisations that have agents in the field so to speak - I'd get in touch with these guys (the national huguenot society) to see if they can point you to a reasonable one who could take you further Link to
Alright so I messaged you, and am awaiting reply. I'll take a look shortly and see what I can do - Give me a few days and fingers crossed I can dig something up for you!
How much do you rely on the work of the LDS (Mormons) in your daily research? Do you frequent their family history centers? It's impossible to deny that the LDS work is invaluable, thanks to them we've progressed so much faster than otherwise would be possible. They've been instrumental in transcribing some of the largest projects in the industry. I have used their site before and they've got a range of records that simply put, nobody else has.
I don't personally get to visit their centres as much as I'd like to as I'm based in London but I've heard nothing but good things about the advice they can offer and the free assistance they can give both from colleagues and customers. If there's one near you I very much recommend paying them a visit!
Where would you start with a family tree? How many generations can you expect to go, reasonably? Start with your surviving family. Get a notepad and pen, talk to as many as you can to find out what they know about their own parents and grandparents/relatives - It's rare to not be able to get back 2-3 generations just with this information. Once you've got that you can start delving into records with the furthest back you've got, either using census information (you'll need to get back to 1940 in the US to start using those, 1911 in the UK/Ireland) or birth registrations that will document the parents of your last known ancestor to get things back a little further. Give me a little more specific background on your heritage and I'll happily give you a proper helping hand to start you off!
I have traced my family back to 1900 Lithuania (part of Russia at the time). How do I continue going back? I can go to Lithuania to search for records, but I'm assuming those records are not in English. A lot of the time it was quite dependent on who was on duty at the time your ancestors got to their port of arrival, even something like an officer mishearing a name can result in a complete rename (though uncommon). Places like Ellis Island were frequently staffed with translators who would translate for the great multitudes of men and women who arrived without a word of English between them, smaller ports weren't so lucky. People frequently changed their names to fit in later on as they considered themselves more "American" - As daft as it sounds you'd do worse than to look at baby name sites, they tend to list the different national versions of each Anglicised christian name.
EDIT: How do firstnames translate between languages? (Like "Carlos" is "Charles" in English.) How do I find the Lithuanian, or possibly Russian, translation of my ancestor's firstnames? You can contact the Lithuanian national archives for a genealogical search but they are VERY overworked and currently have up to a three year delay for requests! You'd be better off maybe contacting a Lithuanian Genealogist who could go to the archives for you? I'd say you've got a great chance of getting back further though!
What kind of educational background/training do you need to become a professional genealogist? There ARE courses offered and professional certifications that you can take - The Association of Professional Genealogists for example or the Association of Genealogists and Researchers in Archives for example, not to mention there are a couple of universities that have started to offer recognised postgraduate courses. I've found most of the professional genealogists I've worked with so far though have fallen into this accidentally by doing their own family tree and getting so hooked that they start doing friends and relatives too, branching out from part time hobby to full time passion.
I wouldn't say that you need any kind of actual training other than a keen investigative streak and a love of puzzles! If you get accurate results then you're as good as anyone else!
Is there anywhere specific or books that you can recommend? I'd fall into that category of people who who done a lot of research around their family, but I'd eventually like to go professional like yourself! If in the US I'd recommend these people - Link to
They are a non profit society that can help you with both paid and free guided learning & home study to help improve your skills, in addition to giving you support along the way.
My question is: How do you charge people for your services? Is it per generation, or a flat rate, or perhaps hourly? It seems like a hard thing to quantify. I personally have a rather unique setup in that I don't have to charge, It's my job to make things easier for people to do it themselves through the website I help to run, which they can pay a subscription to for unlimited access to records or buy pay as you go credits to browse. I've seen both arrangements professionally though, I'm currently working with an Italian Genealogist who I'm paying an hourly fee for their time (as they have to physically go to a very small village in Italy that I could never get to to get hold of the records) but I know that takes a little trust. Quite a lot of genealogists either assess what someone wants and what information they have (some projects take weeks of solid work, others you can get together in an afternoon) to give a "job rate" or offer a sort of "package" rate where they guarantee to do the research for three or more generations, present all the research and documents in a folder and with a neat family tree at a particular cost.
My question is: if I really wanted to make the tree again-- is my only realistic way of doing it asking elders again? (I live in the US, I did this in 2006 when I visited for the second time.) Or will online resources like a family history site be helpful? There are sites with public family trees that if you can find a relative on you could easily link yourself to many thousands of people, the issue with that though is you are relying on other peoples research that may not be as thorough as your own. If you are happy with that then I'd say go ahead, but Ideally I'd still say asking your elders is the best way. Many sympathies for the loss too, I don't know what I'd do if that happened to me!
Is the future of genetic sequencing on an exponential rise? I understand it is becoming more and more convenient and cheap per base pair, but would you see babies being sequenced 5, 10, 20 years down the road? Is it ethical in your perspective? I deal with the past rather than the future - but here's my go at this question anyway - Sequencing is cheaper yes, and can be a great way of discovering genetic likelihood of developing certain forms of cancers, diseases and other things that can be avoided much more easily with changes to lifestyle and diet. I can't see that as a bad thing.
The darker area is in sequencing an unborn child, if you knew a child would be born disabled somehow then would you then be more likely to not give that child a chance at life? What if as now in some societies where boys are valued more than girls you learnt that it would have blue eyes instead of brown. Would you do the same thing? I'm all for sequencing that will aid long and healthy life, I'm dead against anything that could be used to potentially extinguish it in the name of personal preference or societal fashion of the time.
Whats the basic start once someone has come in wanting their family tree? I know mine back 4 generations, but after that, you hit the turn of the 20th century, and things get fuzzy quickly. What do you do to trace lineage beyond the 1900's? Where are you looking and how much do you know? Your greatest resource both in the US and UK is Census information. The detail on these censuses covers everyone who lives in a household, their birthplaces and relationships & then as they are every decade you can usually pick up the parents of children and keep running backwards (US censuses go back in detail to 1850 and before then still record heads and demographics till 1790, UK censuses are detailed and currently released go from 1841 to 1911). Give me a little more information and I'll gladly give you a nudge where to look and dig out maybe a few for you to get you started.
Hi Myko! My great grandparents came to America from Greece in the early 1900s. I've found their ship manifest, and all of their records after arrival, but I have no idea how to go about finding anything from before they left Greece. Any suggestions? Ah Greeks, a lot of the time original Greek surnames were changed or shortened meaning locating older records in Greece is foften a big ask. Original surnames can give clues to lineage though, lots of the prefixes and suffixes indicate geographic areas within Greece. The suffix "akis" often designates Crete for example. Similarly, the suffix "ellis" often means a family from the island Lesbos, and "oudas" means from northern Greece (Macedonia). The prefix "Kondo" often designates an island (kondo is Greek for short").
Before 1925 all Greek records were recorded in the church - so you'd have to look there to get what you needed. I'd recommend enlisting the services of a professional who can visit the church and read their original records, it's difficult yes, but not impossible!
I see the site you work at is British. Is there much difference between searching family history for Britains, Americans, etc.? Is one easier or harder? Americans for the most part are a little luckier, their publicly available censuses go up to 1940 which covers a great many parents and grandparents already - here in the UK thanks to privacy laws we only have up to 1911 released (and after 1921 it gets hard as 1931 was destroyed and 1941 was never taken thanks to the war). Passenger lists on ships leaving and arriving the states are a great resource and so it's usually quite easy to cover someones history from arrival in the US to the current day. Where you back to your ancestral home results are different - European wars have often caused the destruction of records (particularly in Ireland and Germany/the Soviet Union).
A lot of it though is down to chance. sometimes you'll find someone with an easy to find name who's from a region with very undamaged and complete records, others it can be an absolute nightmare (there are over 50,000 John smiths in the UK). That's half of the fun though!
Speaking of passenger lists, I have an ancestor who came to Connecticut around the 1630's. But nobody has been able to find a record of him outside of America. I'm assuming he probably came from Britain, so if that's true how complete and available are passenger lists from that era? In honesty at that point near nonexistent. If the name is rare enough you may be able to pick them up in parish records in the UK and hope it disappears at about the same time yours appears? Drop me a name and some further details and I'll try to take a look for you.
1) What websites do you recommend other than and I'd say every website has its own unique record collections, if you've exhausted those ones then naturally I'd recommend as the next biggest to take a look at (I do work there, but there are thing that may well help you out) - perhaps dig around a free search and see if there's anything that might fill in a gap you might have before taking the plunge and investing.
Is findmypast geared toward UK records, or does it also have records from America? I ad considered looking there and signing up, but I thought it was just UK. If not, I might have to give it a go to find some info on a small branch of my tree from Ireland. We have a relatively new world collection that you probably didn't see last time you were on there, that runs with the .com, .au and .ie sites, they cover British, Irish, American and Australian/NZ records - If you are looking at Irish records which I'm sure you know are quite difficult with the destruction of many of them we've got the most complete Griffiths' valuation (which is still growing) that should help a fair bit in addition to some amazing petty sessions and court records (I love the petty sessions, the detail in those and the prison records can be fantastic if you are lucky/unlucky enough to find your ancestors in them).
As I said I'd never recommend buying without trying first, so take advantage of the free trial and see if you can break through any brick walls before you leap in. Hope that helps you out.
Is it more difficult or impossible researching the history of immigrants? I am assuming Eastern Europeans backgrounds are harder than Western and Asian/African histories are more difficult than European? It's never impossible - You'll actually find that the most full and accurate genealogy in history is Chinese, covering the descendants of Confucius (they were given a special status in Chinese civil service) There are more than 1.3 million living descendants and it's still incomplete! here's a link to a little more info - Link to
African history is unfortunate, records of families were passed orally and so were lost quite easily - that is a difficult one.
Almost every government in Europe had a vested interest in keeping track of their citizens for taxation and demographic purposes, together with other sources - so I'd say that again you'll find records everywhere, just some sets of records in different European places will be far more complete than others.
How could you look for your family tree in countries like France and Germany? Are there sites for those countries too? Digitisation is still relatively new but it's ongoing - Depending on where you are going back to you've always got national government archives, plus I'd try a site like Link to and see what they have.
Once you've done that then start to broaden out to more specialist sites or locations to get a a better picture.
We're most records lost in the last 100 years or so? For the most part yes, as all these records were vast mountains of paper it's just all too easy for a spark from a bomb or fire to send the whole lot in flames. A great amount were lost across Europe during the reformation too though, burnt along with the monasteries and churches that kept them in the 1500s.
I saw earlier you pointed out how Germany lost quite a bit during the Wars, and I know here in Ireland during the civil war in the 1920's we lost a 1000 years of documents! The Irish records are a genuine tragedy. It's not just the civil war that caused that - whoever gave the order to pulp the 1881 and 1891 census for paper during the first world war should have been shot. That's just awful. Having spent a weekend in Dublin this month at the Back To Our Past family history show my heart goes out to how hard it can be with Irish ancestors.
We're there many copies made of them at all or we're they pretty much stand alone? Like was there any more centralized hub's so to speak or we're the churches and monasteries at the time the most central it got? I never knew about the first world war pulping. It does make your blood boil alright. It's quite interesting though how certain events can be so damaging to history. On my mother side, we can trace it back to the early 19th century if not the end of the 18th century. On my father side however we can trace it back to the 16th century where they came from Summerset in the UK. How difficult would it be to trace back family history's in non western nations? I'm assuming area's that had a imperial presence from Europe benefited somewhat more with records. But if not or even before that was there much if any records kept? When you talk about non western nations are we talking about colonial nations or places like China and Japan? Give me some examples and I'll do my best to point you in the right direction.
Well both actually hah. Japanese village records going back to 709 have actually been digitised already, not to mention clan genealogy.
The Chinese take their family heritage seriously, so you'll quite often be lucky and find immaculate genealogies passed from generation to generation - Try this site and it might give you what you need Link to
My mother was adopted. We have no idea who her parents were. How would I go about determining what ethnicity I descend from on her side? Is there genetic testing for this sort of thing? There is, it's come on remarkably in recent years - I've not used any of the competing companies and I'm by no means an expert on that (it's still quite a new field) so I can't personally recommend you one to use, but you should be able to get a full breakdown of where your ancestors most likely came from fairly easily.
Google for Genetic Genealogy testing and compare a few, one of those should more than be perfect for what you need.
Have you ever searched someone's family history and had the pleasure to tell them that they were decendents of royalty? I have! You'd be surprised how often that happens you know. Everyone has two parents, four grandparents, multiplying by two for each generation meaning you have more ancestors than people who have ever existed on earth once we get to the 8/900s. Anyone who's line hasn't died out from that era you can be quite confident of being related to in some way. It's statistically a near certainty that if you are of European heritage you are a direct descendant of the emperor Charlemagne.
You can't brag about that though until you found the proof! I refer to one time a month or so ago at a family history show in Dublin, where I met a lady who started tracing her family tree a few weeks earlier out of curiosity and found she was a descendant of a "Clement Winstanley", a fairly well to do man from the late 1700s. Clement had ordered a personal genealogy in the past (This hobby has been going on for a long time!) which was located and a full pedigree listed going right the way back to King Edward III! That was quite the find for an unassuming lady from the Irish countryside!
It's statistically a near certainty that if you are of European heritage you are a direct descendant of the emperor Charlemagne. There has been a lot of research about that actually - 8-10% of asians are direct descendants and as many as 1 in 200 men worldwide!
Damn, that's cool (although it would be far cooler if one's a distant descendant of Genghis Khan) Take a look at this - Link to
I thought it was something like 30% for all asians. Interesting. I find genealogy very intriguing, also language genealogy. The fact that in the end very human is related to another is very humbling. And, in some ways, fun. The research into "Adam and Eve" is quite strange if you ever look into that when reading up. The notion that there actually was an Adam and Eve (though not in the religious depiction, they lived thousands of years apart) that we all share our lineage from many tens of thousands of years ago always blows my mind.
How much easier is Genealogy now that many web sites have transcribed handwritten records all over the place? Infinitely! I'd say it's the singular biggest development in the industry since its inception. In the past (and I work with people who've been doing this their whole lives and remember this) you'd have to book days in archives that could be up to thousands of miles away and spend your whole day wearing white gloves delicately leafing through thousands of documents in the hope you might find something of use. now you can sit at home and search billions of records at the press of a button, examining only those that are likely matches and even being shown matches from sets of records you would never have even known to look at. The value of that just..can't be overestimated.
How accurate are the websites that claim to give you your family crest? Family origins are well and good but quite often surnames derive from a profession (as the case of Smith or Cooper), an ancestor (like Anderson or Jones). You could quite reasonably accurately pinpoint a national origin based on surname, but I'd say the rest would be more speculative and wouldn't go into too much detail.
There are surnames that have derived independently in opposite sides of the country as corruptions of very different names (as literacy was often not great in the past spellings would change sometimes from generation to generation, I've found three different spellings of my surname in previous proven ancestors myself).
Do you believe in evolution? If so can you believe that so many people don't? If not, why not? I do believe in evolution, though I try not to judge others on what they believe as much as possible - we've both got access to the same facts, if they choose to come to a totally different conclusion I guess that's their look out. I'd happily debate the issue with them over a drink though all night long.
Ohh ok, I've heard that, my last name is Pottle, so it probably came from potter right? But that's not really what I meant, maybe I worded it wrong, what I meant was the images like what would have been on my shield if I were a knight. Coat of arms were granted to a person and their descendants, so you'd have a "Pottle" coat possibly, but you'd then have to find some way to link yourself to those particular Pottle descendants as opposed to a different group of people with that surname. That will be A Pottle crest definitely, but if it's your ancestors you'd have to prove with research. Who might find someone even more worthy of a coat of arms!
Do you have tons of people always asking if they were related to royalty? I'd say it's one of the more common requests. People quite often want to find that link because we know so many stories about royals, the things they did, the lavish places they lived and how they went about their business.
It is powerful enough to find that link, but I've seen so much more moving stories from pit miners and travelling salesmen, people who didn't live in palaces but through the records we've managed to illuminate their whole lives and show the hardships they endured & the fantastic things they managed to still do.
Can I know if the son of a girl is mine or my brother? Maybe the DNA is to alike. You'll have different markers in your DNA that are unique to you - the chances of having an incorrect DNA match are 1 in millions, no matter how closely related you are. A modern DNA test can quite accurately tell you parentage of anyone if you've got proper samples from everyone concerned.
Hey! Is it possible to make a full-time living as a geneaologist? How much do they charge per hour? It is, I know a great deal of them - rates per hour vary wildly usually depending on the difficulty of a project and how much specialist knowledge is required. The best paid ones tend to be able to visit archives and get records that other people can't, coupled with skills in that area to know what to look for if the trail goes cold. You'd be surprised how many experts can be completely stumped for another to stroll over and instantly solve a mystery!
What are some tricks that you might have for researching matrilineal lines of descent? Marriage certificates! You quite often find the father of the bride listed in these, which gives you a maiden surname and a new line of inquiry straight away!
Icelandic here, so I can trace my ancestry back to the 800's (yay I'm inbred). So along with being of Norse ancestry, I have quite a lot of Celtic/Irish ancestors as well. I find their ancestry quite interesting, do you know more about them? As in did they all look the same? (Reddish hair, freckles, their eye colour etc.) and from what regions have they (my celtic ancestors) originated from before they even found the British Isles? We are all pretty inbred when you go that far back! I wouldn't worry about that. There was no uniform look in the British Isles, though Red hair was far more common here than elsewhere definitely. Over 40% of Irish carry the gene for example.
Celts originated in North Africa and migrated through Iberia (you'll still find a significant minority of redheads in the Basque country) and Britanny before crossing to the British isles. You'll find a lot of genetic similarity between these peoples, together with a degree of closeness of language too!
Which way are you supposed to go with the genealogy stuff? With who was married to whom (and therefore legally father), or with the real father (or mother if different) if the legal and social father did not match the biological father? Social or biological ancestry? Genealogy is an open field - Some people research only direct ancestors, some build a picture of an entire family, others build in the trees of people who married into a family to make the biggest interconnected picture they can!
Who is the person you know who can track their family tree back the farthest? How far back does it go> Professionally that would be the descendants of the philosopher Confucius - Anyone related to Confucius was offered special status in Chinese civil service and so his genealogy has been recorded now since 500bc. There are over 1.3 million living descendants in the last published edition, going right up to his 79th generation.
Personally I know a few people who can get back to the 900s thanks to being related to nobility. To get past the dark ages is near impossible thanks to record destruction so I'd be very impressed if you could get much further. Some of these dark ages kings wrote their own genealogies to legitimise themselves that were less than honest..One I remember boasted being a descendant of not only Julius Caesar but the Viking god Odin. So make of that what you will.
Last updated: 2012-11-08 22:06 UTC
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